Self-Driving Cars May Succeed on Tech but Fail in Politics

Battery-electric cars became a political mess well before Elon Musk turned public opinion against his cars by leading the "government efficiency" campaign that sent about 300,000 federal employees to unemployment last year. Before that the Biden administration screwed up by setting mandates pushing automakers to build more EVs whether Americans wanted them or not.

Competing Against Human Drivers

"Automated vehicles are starting to compete against human drivers in rideshare systems that already operate on tight margins," Reimer writes. "The debate is shifting from whether the technology works to whether the public and policymakers are willing to trust it. As with electric vehicles, the future of highly automated transportation may end up tied to electoral cycles as much as engineering milestones."

Where President Trump stands on autonomous vehicles isn't clear. He's expressed skepticism and said he'd never get into one while also not wanting the U.S. to lag behind Chinese companies developing them. His administration has focused on easing regulations to foster American-made tech.

Legislation in Congress

Two relevant bills are before Congress: the Motor Vehicle Modernization Act and the SELF DRIVE Act. Both face opposition from Advocates for Highway and Auto Safety. President Cathy Chase says her organization isn't opposed to self-driving cars.

"Once they can be deployed safely and have been independently verified to be able to perform the driving task, it could be a really wonderful thing and could significantly reduce the number of crashes, fatalities, and injuries," Chase declared. While lane-departure warning, blind-spot detection, and other driver-assistance tech are important building blocks for self-driving cars, she says only automatic emergency braking will be required by law at this point, starting in 2029. "So there's this massive disconnect between the rush for autonomous vehicles now but not a similar rush for the safety technologies that could be saving lives."

Super Cruise Better Than Cruise

Public safety and reliability raise other big hurdles for regulators and urban planners. San Francisco pedestrians and motorists have seen lots of traffic jams caused by software glitches, sensor issues, or network failures. Might seem funny till cars actually collide and people get hurt. The hit to a company's bottom line can be irreversible. Just ask General Motors which gave up on Cruise Automation robotaxis in 2024 after $10 billion in losses and a serious accident involving a pedestrian in 2023.

While GM takes heat for Cruise, the automaker deserves credit for advancing its Super Cruise highway tech now available on vehicles from all four brands and has delivered over 800 million miles of hands-free, pedal-free highway driving. Drivers must keep eyes on the road so it's still far from Level 4 autonomous driving but this incremental tech has likely given owners a glimpse of the future.

GM CEO Mary Barra spoke about autonomous driving at a January fireside chat during the Detroit auto show and sounded fairly downbeat, maybe validating the theory that self-driving tech carries too much political baggage. "This is not our business," she said when asked about robotaxis. "We don't run a taxi business. We don't run a bus business. We're not running Rideshare 1.0, so I think it's the right decision for us."

Tesla, Lucid Moving Ahead

Musk is more bullish on autonomous tech as Tesla Full Self-Driving (Supervised) is available for a $99/month subscription replacing Tesla's standalone Autopilot which was involved in 13 fatal accidents. Despite the massive investments needed without a clear path to profitability some automakers remain focused on automated vehicles.

Lucid recently reported losing $3.5 billion from 2025 operations yet Interim CEO Marc Winterhoff was enthusiastic about "deployment of the first Lucid robotaxis into commercial service with our partners." Winterhoff says Lucid wants to be "an early mover in the emerging robotaxi market and to deliver differentiated autonomy capabilities to our customers in a capital-efficient way."

Bosch Thinking Long-Term

A key driver behind the driver-assistance tech enabling self-driving cars is Robert Bosch, the world's largest automotive components supplier which pioneered both anti-lock brakes and electronic stability control long ago. The global supplier is actively developing self-driving cars.

"While the market dynamics for fully automated driving have not yet peaked, Bosch believes it will achieve long-term market success," the supplier says in an email. "Automated technology continues to proliferate. More private vehicles feature ADAS technology which helps to support driver safety on the road."

Despite the industry's progress Reimer says companies in this sector need to take a broader view. "Have firms fully accounted for the political consequences of globalized platforms and remote labor in a safety-centric transportation system?" he asks. "Technical risk can be studied and modeled. Political risk on the other hand is far less predictable and often moves faster than anyone expects."